The Office of National Statistics has reported that inflation for July has risen to 2.2%. This is the first rise of 2024 after inflation fell during the early part of the year and then settled at 2% for May and June.
A rise was expected because energy prices are now falling by less than they were doing a year ago.
This means that inflation has now gone back above the Bank of England’s target. However, the Bank themselves expected this, and many economic forecasters are predicting that inflation will stay above 2% for the rest of the year.
Encouragingly, inflation for services dropped from 5.7% to 5.2% in July. This was a larger drop than expected and is primarily due to a fall in inflation on restaurant and hotel pricing. It seems this may be due to the temporary effect on pricing brought about by Taylor Swift’s concerts, as well as increases to cover the minimum wage uplifts now levelling off.
The increase suggests that there is still pressure on prices and so business owners need to continue careful budgeting of costs as well as reviewing pricing to ensure profit margins.
See: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/latest
From April, people drawing the state pension may see an increase of more than £500 a year, thanks to the government’s triple lock guarantee. The policy means the pension rises each year by whichever is higher: 2.5%, inflation, or average wage growth.
Small businesses looking to expand premises could soon find it easier following new government commitments to make business rates fairer. An interim report from the Treasury says that the Chancellor will examine ways to tackle “cliff edges” in the system - sudden jumps in rates that can discourage investment.